Transition probabilities from selected texts: Difference between revisions
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| Line 26: | Line 26: | ||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters | ||
<br/>Markov Probability: | <br/>Markov Probability: 1.7633169297716054E-83 | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 1 | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 1 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: - | <br/>HMMER Score: -68.08239247668342 | ||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters | ||
| Line 34: | Line 34: | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 9 | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 9 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: -97.26506645809364 | <br/>HMMER Score: -97.26506645809364 | ||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) All Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.0172950778991843E-77 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 1 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -48.94437749826932 | |||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) All Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.139309827314818E-84 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 1 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -71.12546693519374 | |||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) All Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 4.7024882053115854E-77 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 2 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -46.735691382905166 | |||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters | ||
| Line 39: | Line 54: | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: -24.99631136880728 | <br/>HMMER Score: -24.99631136880728 | ||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(Outputs\Playfair.out) All Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 5.213910076344393E-69 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -20.01132524791302 | |||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
===Initial letters=== | ===Initial letters=== | ||
| Line 57: | Line 77: | ||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters | ||
<br/>Markov Probability: | <br/>Markov Probability: 3.204888821639082E-63 | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: - | <br/>HMMER Score: -0.7818480694202504 | ||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters | ||
| Line 65: | Line 85: | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: 13.431992337096512 | <br/>HMMER Score: 13.431992337096512 | ||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) Initial Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.2658166834014361E-60 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: 8.683693049158332 | |||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) Initial Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 6.9654365323502316E-68 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 1 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -16.27154908302583 | |||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) Initial Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.6806903224847996E-64 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 2 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -4.361445908011734 | |||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
==Second order== | ==Second order== | ||
| Line 84: | Line 119: | ||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters | ||
<br/>Markov Probability: | <br/>Markov Probability: 3.342953425806875E-98 | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 11 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: - | <br/>HMMER Score: -116.98848244535708 | ||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters | ||
| Line 92: | Line 127: | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 21 | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 21 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: -175.9194661728711 | <br/>HMMER Score: -175.9194661728711 | ||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) All Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 4.2738731323579313E-94 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 13 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -103.34634923820269 | |||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) All Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 5.327306011536052E-112 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 17 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -162.82319287449383 | |||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) All Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.1823873333660746E-91 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 10 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -95.23440631711085 | |||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters | ||
| Line 97: | Line 147: | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 8 | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 8 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: -98.05823732223358 | <br/>HMMER Score: -98.05823732223358 | ||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(Outputs\Playfair.out) All Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 7.389612924665265E-86 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 6 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -75.98096976556741 | |||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
===Initial letters=== | ===Initial letters=== | ||
| Line 115: | Line 170: | ||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters | ||
<br/>Markov Probability: | <br/>Markov Probability: 8.869612541473453E-71 | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 3 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: - | <br/>HMMER Score: -25.888676055317255 | ||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters | <br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters | ||
| Line 123: | Line 178: | ||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | <br/>Corrected Zeroes: 0 | ||
<br/>HMMER Score: 17.600375336401736 | <br/>HMMER Score: 17.600375336401736 | ||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) Initial Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 9.986807259493189E-70 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 4 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -22.395595515749598 | |||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) Initial Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.9749729570078271E-69 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 2 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -21.41185805018986 | |||
<br/> | |||
<br/>(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) Initial Letters | |||
<br/>Markov Probability: 9.55816081723446E-69 | |||
<br/>Corrected Zeroes: 4 | |||
<br/>HMMER Score: -19.13695790770939 | |||
<br/> | <br/> | ||
Latest revision as of 15:48, 2 October 2009
The Somerton Man's code (without the extra line) is 44 characters long. So, if the text is purely random (1/26 chance of each letter appearing) then the probability of attaining this particular string of 44 is (1/26)^44 = 5.51027E-63. This is a good initial comparison.
For transitions that have p=0, corrections to p=0.0001 have been performed to attain a non-zero Markov probability.
HMMER score[1] is the log (base 2) of Markov probability / null probability (1/26^44)
First order[edit]
All letters[edit]
(..\Texts\English.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.196215910162246E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -23.646530132315654
(..\Texts\French.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.562440416695874E-74
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -36.8135257053655
(..\Texts\German.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.6093650169064557E-82
Corrected Zeroes: 3
HMMER Score: -64.89226460456342
(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.7633169297716054E-83
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -68.08239247668342
(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 2.8938109466376915E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -97.26506645809364
(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.0172950778991843E-77
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -48.94437749826932
(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 2.139309827314818E-84
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -71.12546693519374
(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.7024882053115854E-77
Corrected Zeroes: 2
HMMER Score: -46.735691382905166
(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.646391769425068E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -24.99631136880728
(Outputs\Playfair.out) All Letters
Markov Probability: 5.213910076344393E-69
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -20.01132524791302
Initial letters[edit]
(..\Texts\English.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 5.755746003335865E-56
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 23.316377212971148
(..\Texts\French.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.960919656262944E-61
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 5.153264236029422
(..\Texts\German.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 7.441017498436695E-73
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -32.78590341697
(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 3.204888821639082E-63
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -0.7818480694202504
(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 6.089831612262369E-59
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 13.431992337096512
(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 2.2658166834014361E-60
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 8.683693049158332
(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 6.9654365323502316E-68
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -16.27154908302583
(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 2.6806903224847996E-64
Corrected Zeroes: 2
HMMER Score: -4.361445908011734
Second order[edit]
All letters[edit]
(..\Texts\English.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.2148901763982914E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -96.72254209077907
(..\Texts\French.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.9814441750241465E-90
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -91.16762862009702
(..\Texts\German.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 5.919358467581905E-105
Corrected Zeroes: 14
HMMER Score: -139.41766153806188
(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 3.342953425806875E-98
Corrected Zeroes: 11
HMMER Score: -116.98848244535708
(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 6.083262400057097E-116
Corrected Zeroes: 21
HMMER Score: -175.9194661728711
(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.2738731323579313E-94
Corrected Zeroes: 13
HMMER Score: -103.34634923820269
(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 5.327306011536052E-112
Corrected Zeroes: 17
HMMER Score: -162.82319287449383
(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.1823873333660746E-91
Corrected Zeroes: 10
HMMER Score: -95.23440631711085
(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.669944098510842E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 8
HMMER Score: -98.05823732223358
(Outputs\Playfair.out) All Letters
Markov Probability: 7.389612924665265E-86
Corrected Zeroes: 6
HMMER Score: -75.98096976556741
Initial letters[edit]
(..\Texts\English.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.0496288884966237E-55
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 24.18318171171002
(..\Texts\French.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 8.83846402382603E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 3
HMMER Score: -22.571823368605646
(..\Texts\German.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.6757717490935368E-89
Corrected Zeroes: 10
HMMER Score: -88.08742718870606
(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 8.869612541473453E-71
Corrected Zeroes: 3
HMMER Score: -25.888676055317255
(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.0949986922100798E-57
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 17.600375336401736
(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 9.986807259493189E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 4
HMMER Score: -22.395595515749598
(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.9749729570078271E-69
Corrected Zeroes: 2
HMMER Score: -21.41185805018986
(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 9.55816081723446E-69
Corrected Zeroes: 4
HMMER Score: -19.13695790770939